It is strongly advised that you don’t become too giddy over the recent, and it has to be said, optimistic, forecast from MPAA regarding the theatrical film business, and the record sales achieved for X Men.
Robert Fishman, an analyst from Nomura Securities, has warned that after taking a first look into the business, cinema chains are in for a tough few years from 2014, as admissions will drop steadily through until at least 2016. He says that sales at the domestic box office fell in the US in 2011 by 3.8% to $10.2bn, with attendances dropping by 4.2% to 1.3bn, which he says is just the tip of the iceberg.
Data from MPAA shows that between 2000 and 2013, the percentage of those who frequently visited the cinema fell by 10% to 30%, while the number of those who never went rose from 26% to 33%. The biggest drop was seen amongst young people whose indifference to the cinema is rather disconcerting considering the fact that they are the most targeted audience.
Fishman went onto say that cinemas themselves could also suffer as the major studios have already started to slash the number of films they are making. Although smaller, independent producers are picking up some of the slack, the analyst predicts that the scale release for the majority of these films will be enough to attract enough people into the cinema to make any real difference.